Search results for "Supply shock"
showing 5 items of 5 documents
Migration and imperfect labor markets: theory and cross-country evidence from Denmark, Germany and the UK
2014
We investigate the labor market effects of immigration in Denmark, Germany and the UK, three countries which are characterized by considerable differences in labor market institutions and welfare states. Institutions such as collective bargaining, minimum wages, employment protection and unemployment benefits affect the way in which wages respond to labor supply shocks, and, hence, the labor market effects of immigration. We employ a wage-setting approach which assumes that wages decline with the unemployment rate, albeit imperfectly. We find that the wage and employment effects of immigration depend on wage flexibility and the composition of the labor supply shock. In Germany immigration i…
Primary commodity prices: co-movements, common factors and fundamentals
2011
The behavior of commodities is critical for developing and developed countries alike. This paper contributes to the empirical evidence on the co-movement and determinants of commodity prices. Using nonstationary panel methods, the authors document a statistically significant degree of co-movement due to a common factor. Within a Factor Augmented VAR approach, real interest rate and uncertainty, as postulated by a simple asset pricing model, are both found to be negatively related to this common factor. This evidence is robust to the inclusion of demand and supply shocks, which both positively impact on co-movement of commodity prices.
Credit Demand and Supply Shocks in Italy During the Great Recession
2018
In this paper, we use Structural VAR analysis to disentangle credit demand and supply shocks and their eFFect on real economic activity in Italy during the 2008-2014 crisis period. The three endogenous variables considered are the loan interest rate, the loans growth rate and the employment to population ratio. The data are observed at annual frequency for each of 103 Italian provinces. The structural shocks are identified through heteroscedasticity, by letting the variance of the shocks to switch across four Italian macro-regions: North, Centre, South and Islands. Sign restrictions are used to interpret ex post the structural shocks. The empirical findings suggest a more important role of …
Heterogeneous Displacement Effects of Migrant Labor Supply – Quasi-Experimental Evidence From Germany
2019
We provide estimates of the effect of migrant labor supply on resident employment. We exploit variation in the number of asylum seekers eligible to the suspension of a major hiring restriction implemented in a subset of German counties. Our difference-in-difference design allows us to provide evidence from a labor supply shock of migrants on local markets net of their additional spending at arrival that might mask labor market displacement effects. Despite this, we do not find a negative effect on employment growth of natives but only on other foreign residents. This also holds for unskilled employees. Therefore, our findings can be interpreted as the consequence of differential substitutab…
Market efficiency and the long-memory of supply and demand: is price impact variable and permanent or fixed and temporary?
2016
In this comment we discuss the problem of reconciling the linear efficiency of price returns with the long-memory of supply and demand. We present new evidence that shows that efficiency is maintained by a liquidity imbalance that co-moves with the imbalance of buyer vs. seller initiated transactions. For example, during a period where there is an excess of buyer initiated transactions, there is also more liquidity for buy orders than sell orders, so that buy orders generate smaller and less frequent price responses than sell orders. At the moment a buy order is placed the transaction sign imbalance tends to dominate, generating a price impact. However, the liquidity imbalance rapidly incre…